人民币汇率波动的理论概述.doc

摘 要 汇率作为一国货币同另一国货币的兑换比率，是实现一国经济内部和外部均衡的重要工具，也是调节国际经济竞争关系最直接和有效的手段。2005年7月21日，我国开始实施以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。截至2010年12月中旬人民币对美元汇率升值幅度己超过22%，当月人民币兑美元汇率中间价已达6.6630。 人民币汇率的浮动弹性逐渐扩大，汇率波动性增加。人民币升值对国际贸易的影响在逐渐显现，成为经济研究热点之一，同时巨额贸易顺差也给人民币汇率形成机制改革带来巨大压力，这些都是我国经济发展的潜在风险。因此，分析人民币汇率波动对我国进出口贸易的影响具有重要的现实意义。文章以人民币汇率和我国进出口贸易关系为切入点，定性分析人民币汇率波动对我国进出口贸易的影响，提出我国进出口贸易应对人民币汇率波动的对策。 关键词　汇率；人民币升值；进出口贸易；影响 Abstract Exchange rate, as the ratio at which one currency can be converted into another currency, is an important instrument for achieving the internal and external balance of an economy. And it also is the most direct and most effective means of regulating the international economic competition relationship. Beginning form July 21st, 2005, China implemented a regulated, managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and in reference to a package of currencies. By 2010 mid-December RMB appreciation against the dollar has this month, more than 22 per cent against the dollar has reached the middle price 6.6630. With the deepening of RMB exchange rate reform, an increasing fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will exert great impact on China’s economy and international trade. Meanwhile, the huge foreign trade surplus has also brought great pressure on the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform, which is the potential risk to China’s economic development. Therefore, the analysis of the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on China’s foreign trade has important practical significance. In this paper, we will analyze the relationship between real RMB exchange rate volatility on China’s trade, and then we put forward some policy suggestions for the reform of the RMB exchange rate. Key words Exchange Rate; International Trade; Effect; Cointegration 目 录 摘要 I Abstract II 一、人民币汇率波动的理论概述 1 （一）汇率波动概述 1 1．汇率的含义及标价方法 1 2．汇率波动 3 （二）人民币汇率波动对进出口贸易的作用机理 3 二、我国进出口贸易与人民币汇率波动 5 （一）人民币汇率波动的回顾 5 1．持续贬值时期（1978年－1993年） 5 2．基本稳定时期（1994年－2004年） 5 3．2005年至2008年的人民币汇率波动 6 4．国际