供电网络系统的可靠性分析-世界地震工程.PDFVIP

21 4 Vol. 21, No. 4 2005 12 W ORLD EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING Dec. , 2005 : 1007-6069( 2005) 04- 01 - 06 杜景林杨亚弟 (, 150080) : , , , , , : ; ; : P 15 : A R eliab ility analy sis of the power supp ly netw ork sy stem DU Jing-lin YANG Ya-d i ( Institute ofEng ineering M echanics, China EarthquakeA dm inistration, H arbin150080, China) Abs tract: In th is paper, the reliab ility analysis methods of power supply netw orks in lifeline system are studied. Based on the element reliab ility analysis, the engineering seism ic analysis of pow er supply newt orks is conducted. The classification and differentiatingm ethods of functional invalidation are brought forw ard, the concept of function- al invalidation coefficient and its derivation method are also introduced, wh ich can realize the quantitative analysis of pow er supply netw ork system. It is concluded that the study is a great nelp to the construction of a practical ex- pert system of earthquake resistance capability analysis of lifeline system. K ey w ord s: invalidation coefficient; reliability; pow er supply newt ork 1 , , , , , , , , : , ; , , , , : 2005- 06- 15; : 2005- 10- 1 : ( 1947- ), , , , . 1 4 21 2 , , , , , , , , Monte Carlo 2. 1Monte Carlo M onte Carlo, , , , , , , M onte Carlo: ( 1), , ; ( 2), ; ( ) 12, , , , n n , n , : A = ( aij ) n n , V= { 1, 2, , n} , a 0, i j () a 0, ( V, V ) ij