水清无鱼印表机的技术变迁-淡江大学机构典藏.pdfVIP

臺大管理論叢 2015/12 26 1 181-208 DOI: 10.6226/NTUMR.2015.JUN.A102-050 水清無魚？印表機的技術變遷 No Turbulence in River, No Fish? Technological Change in Printers 洪世章 / Shih-Chang Hung, Professor, Institute of Technology Management, National Tsing Hua University 賴俊彥 / Jiun-Yan Lai, Ph.D. Student, Institute of Technology Management, National Tsing Hua University 涂敏芬 / Min-Fen Tu, Assistant Professor, Department of Business Administration, Tamkang University Received 2013/7, Final revision received 2014/6 摘 要 1976 2010 1988 9 1992 10 2008 4 2009 11 【關鍵字】 Abstract This paper examines the chaos of technological change in printers during the period 1976~2010. Chaos theory, developed to reveal the structure of nonlinearity, provides implications for the relationship between continuity and discontinuity, order and disorder in technological change processes. To apply chaos theory to technological change, we used two mathematical tools, local Hurst exponent (LHE) and local Lyapunov exponent (LLE), to detect the long-term memory and chaotic patterns in printers. The results of this quantitative analysis were then used to guide our interpretative analysis of technological changes in printers. Findings show that chaos occurred in the periods from September 1988 to October 1992, and from April 2008 to November 2009. Paradigms or standards emerged after those chaotic periods, just like the fish would appear in the turbulence. Keywords chaos theory, local Hurst exponent, local Lyapunov exponent, printers, technological change 181 壹、導論 (Gleick, 1987) (Butterfly Effect) (Prigogine, Stengers, a