社会安全网自我保险与商业保险一个理论模型SocialSafetyNet.PDF

社会安全网、自我保险与商业保险：一个理论模型    秦雪征1  北京大学经济学院    摘要：社会安全网作为现代社会保障体系的一部分，旨在为困难人口或受灾人群提供补 偿性的救助，以缓解贫困、失业、疾病或灾难等对其造成的损失。然而，由于在风险承担功 能上的近似性，社会安全网在一定条件下可能对私人的自我保险行为及商业保险需求产生 “挤出效应”。本文在期望效用的分析框架下，将社会安全网、自我保险及商业保险引入统 一的消费者保险需求模型，进而研究安全网对其他两种抗风险工具的需求影响。结果显示， “挤出效应”的存在条件与消费者面临的市场环境以及自我保险生产函数的特征等因素密切 相关。在特定参数条件下，社会安全网的规模对个人保险需求可能产生“局部挤出”甚至“完 全挤出”的作用。本文是文献中首次综合探究三者关系的理论模型，我们的研究结果填补了 相关领域的理论空缺，并为进一步评估社会安全网制度提供了新的方向。 关键词：社会安全网，自我保险，商业保险，挤出效应   Social Safety Net, Self-insurance and Commercial Insurance: A Theoretical Model Xuezheng Qin School of Economics, Peking University Abstract: As an integral part of modern social security, the social safety net aims to provide financial relief to the vulnerable and disadvantaged population on their loss from poverty, unemployment, illness, natural disasters, etc. However, when viewed as a risk bearing vehicle, the social safety net can incur a “crowding-out effect” on the private investment in self-insurance and commercial insurance. Under the expected utility framework, this paper explores the effect of social safety net on the demand for the other two alternatives by incorporating the safety net, self-insurance and commercial insurance into a unified model of demand for insurance. Our results indicate that the existence of crowding-out depends on the market environment faced by the consumers as well as the characteristics of the self-insurance production function. Moreover, our model demonstrates that both partial and full crowding-out is possible under certain parametric conditions. The