中国城发展中的地质环境问题-第四纪研究.PDF

Chin. Geogra. Sci. 2015 Vol. 25 No. 5 pp. 569–581 Springer Science Press doi: 10.1007/s11769-015-0734-5 /content/1002-0063 Quantitative Estimation on Contributions of Climate Changes and Human Activities to Decreasing Runoff in Weihe River Basin, China HUANG Shengzhi, HUANG Qiang, CHEN Yutong (State Key Laboratory Base of Eco-Hydraulic Engineering in Arid Area, Xi′an University of Technology, Xi ′an 710048, China) Abstract: Human activities and climate changes are deemed to be two primary driving factors influencing the changes of hydrological processes, and quantitatively separating their influences on runoff changes will be of great significance to regional water resources plan- ning and management. In this study, the impact of climate changes and human activities was initially qualitatively distinguished through a coupled water and energy budgets analysis, and then this effect was further separated by means of a quantitative estimation based on hydrological sensitivity analysis. The results show that: 1) precipitation, wind speed, potential evapotranspiration and runoff have a sig- nificantly decreasing trend, while temperature has a remarkably increasing tendency in the Weihe River Basin, China; 2) the major driv- ing factor on runoff decrease in the 1970s and 1990s in the basin is climate changes compared with that in the baseline 1960s, while that in the 1980s and 2000s is human activities. Compared with the results based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, the contri- butions calculated in this study have certain reliability. The results are of great significance to local water resources planning and man- agement. Keywords: climate changes; human activities; runoff decrease; quantitative analysis; Weihe River Bas