第十二次全国民政会议精神传达提纲 T.pptVIP

Using CHRONOS Outputs and Site Statistics to Forecast a Daily AQI in southern Québec, Canada Julie Dion, Meteorological Service of Canada OUTLINE Background The Air Quality Index in Canada Using an interim Air Quality Index The forecast program in Québec The CHRONOS model Project The data and methodology used Preliminary results Conclusion and recommendations The AQI in Canada Air quality reporting is a provincial matter Forecast capabilities lie with federal gov. Developing a health-based AQI (based on epidemiology studies and ambient levels) Full formula includes O3, PM2.5, NO2, SO2 Implementation : 2007 across Canada The Interim AQI The province of Québec reports an interim AQI It is made up of PM2.5 and O3 values Sub-AQIpol = (Pollutant/objective)X50 Interim AQI = Max(sub-IQAO3,sub-IQAPM2.5) Hourly ozone obj.: 82ppb PM2.5 obj.: 35mg/m3 over 3 hours The forecast program, Quebec INFO-SMOG Good (0-25), Acceptable (26-49), Bad (50+) Summer :16 April to 30 September (mainly ozone) Winter : 1 December to 15 April?(fine particles)? ? Forecasting tools Summer : CHRONOS, back-trajectories, weather patterns recognition, observations, etc. Winter : A statistical model?of atmospheric dispersion of local sources??? Issue time Summer : Once a day at 16:00(EDT) valid for ?tomorrow? with warnings issued when necessary Winter : Once a day at 14:00(EST) valid for ?this evening? and ?tonight? with warnings issued when necessary Future One multi-pollutant (Index-based) year-round program With forecasts issued twice a day The CHRONOS model Comprehensive Eulerian model Semi-Lagrangian transport of chemicals Chemistry/Physical processes : Gas phase chemistry from ADOM(47 species/114 reactions) Secondary Organic Aerosol formation based on Pandis Mixed phase inorganic chemistry calculations using HETV Includes dry deposition 21km resolution (stereopolar grid covering Canada-US-Mexico) Based on 1995 contaminants emissions fields Data and Methodology (1) AQI max = a + bx1 +