leson14 初级商品市场《外刊经贸知识选读》重点-串讲-课文翻译.docx

第14课 初级商品市场Soft Commodities非耐用商品一、（Excerpts）（摘录） Many prices are at historic lows, and the IMF expects further falls.Yet there are signs that the worse may be over.One key commodity, sugar, has recovered. 许多商品的价格处于历史最低点，虽然国际货币基金组织预计价格还会进一步下跌。但是，有迹象表明，最糟的局面已经结束了。因为“糖”这种关键性商品的价格已经回升了。 Markets Have Lost Their Allure 市场已失去吸引力 For Most people involved in the production and trading of “soft” or agricultural commodities, this is proving to be a grim decade. 对于大多数生产并买卖非耐用商品或农业品的人来说，这十年无疑是阴暗的十年。 Prices are in many cases at, or near, historic lows in real terms as markets struggle to cope with floods of surplus produce.And—with most soothsayers forecasting flat, or still lower, prices—the markets themselves have lost much of their allure. 许多情况下，产品的价格都在实际意义上处于或接近历史最低价，这是因为市场要应付泛滥成灾的过剩的农产品。同时，大多数预言家预测价格将会持平，或者更低。市场自身已经失去了很多的魅力。 Speculators who profited handsomely from the price volatility of the 1970s have deserted soft commodities for the newer excitement of financial futures or the security and big yields afforded by the equity and money markets. 从20世纪70年代的价格不稳中大笔获益的投机者们已经放弃了非耐用商品而寻求金融期货或有价证券带来的新的刺激以及股票和货币市场提供的巨额利润。 The contrast with the “resources decade” of the 1970s could hardly be more marked.It is strange, indeed, to observe that only 10 years have elapsed since spiraling commodity prices were the focus of major international concern, and many respected forecasters were warning of impending global shortages of basic raw materials and foodstuffs. 这和70年代的“资源十年”之间的对比是再明显不过的了。确实很奇怪，仅仅十年前，国际上关心的焦点还是不断盘旋上升的价格，许多受人尊重的预言家们一直在警告全球性的基础原材料和食品短缺即将到来。 The shortages never came, and the terms of trade have now shifted dramatically against the commodity producers.Agricultural commodities have been particularly badly hit.Last year alone, the International Monetary Fund’s indices of food prices and of agricultural raw material prices fell by 15 per cent and 12 per cent respectively.Commodity prices in general were about 35 per cent below their 1980 average in 1985 according to the UN Con