巴黎气候协议能否拯救世界(纽约时报).docx

Hope From Paris巴黎气候协议能否拯救世界?保罗克鲁格曼翻译:经雷Did the Paris climate accord协议save civilization? Maybe. That may not sound like a ringing endorsement, but itsactually the best climate news weve hadin a very long time. This agreement couldstill follow the path of the 1997 KyotoProtocol, which seemed like a big deal butended up being completely ineffectual.But there have been important changes inthe world since then, which may finallyhave created the preconditions for actionon global warming before its too late.Until very recently there were two hugeroadblocks in the way of any kind ofglobal deal on climate: Chinas soaringconsumption of coal, and the implacable不能安抚的；难和解的；不能缓和的opposition of Americas Republican Party.The first seemed to mean that globalgreenhouse emissions would riseinexorably no matter what wealthycountries did, while the second meantthat the biggest of those wealthy countrieswas unable to make credible promises,and hence unable to lead.巴黎气候协议能拯救人类文明吗？有可能。这样的背书听起来也许不是很坚定，但在气候问题上，我们确实很久没有听到这么好的消息了。这份协议最终也许会和1997年的《京都议定书》一个下场，在当时看起来很不得了，结果完全没有用。然而，这个世界后来发生了很多变化，最终促成了对全球变暖采取行动的意向，但求一切不要发展到不可收拾的地步。达成全球气候协议的道路上一直横亘henggen着两大障碍:中国煤炭消耗的激增，和美国共和党的顽固反对。前者似乎意味着，无论富国怎么做，全球温室气体排放的增加都将是不可避免的，而后者则显示最大的那个富国无法做可信的承诺，因此也就不能它来带头。But there have been important changes on both fronts.然而这两方面都出现了重要的变化。On one side，there is a visible shift in Chinese attitudes-- or at any rate, a shift that would be visible if the smog werentso thick. Seriously, China faces a huge airquality crisis, brought on(bring on 导致) largely by coal-burning, which makes it far more willingto wean itself from使放弃；使戒除；使脱离（坏伙伴） the worst form of fossilfuel consumption化石燃料消耗. And Chinas economic growth-- real income per capita has quadrupled since 1997--also means that it has a rapidly growing middle class thatdemands a higher quality of life, includingair thats relatively safe to breathe.So China is playing a very different rolenow than it did in the past. One indicator:some of the usual suspects on the righthave sud