养老金制度论文：中国现行养老金制度下的缺口分析及对策.docVIP

养老金制度论文：中国现行养老金制度下的缺口分析及对策 【中文摘要】养老金制度是社会保障体系中的一项重要组成部分,但是由于世界人口老龄化等原因的影响,现收现付制的养老金模式逐渐出现了危机。在这样的背景下,2005年中国对养老金制度进行了改革,建立了社会统筹和个人账户相结合的养老金制度。然而,制度的转变带来了一些新的问题,其中转轨成本的大小、社会统筹和个人账户养老金新的均衡等,都是本文旨在解决的问题。本文通过对改革之后中国养老金制度的现状和缺口,以及产生缺口的外因和内因的分析,根据一般均衡理论的思路,利用精算理论建立较为完善的社会统筹缺口、个人账户缺口和转轨成本模型,以此作为研究的基本框架。接着根据中国实际情况对模型中的相关参数进行设定,进行模拟实证研究,预测了2005年至2030年的养老金缺口,并对养老金供求进行均衡分析。最后根据实证结果分别从存量和流量两个角度提出相关缓解和解决养老金缺口的办法。通过模拟实证研究发现,中国养老金制度改革初期,社会统筹账户盈余,而个人账户处于缺口状态,此时的转轨成本是养老金缺口的主要部分;但是在中国养老金制度改革二十年后,随着退休职工比重的剧增,社会统筹账户盈余额每年递减,而个人账户的缺口额每年大幅增加,盈余开始小于缺口。可以预见,在中国养老金制度改革三十年后,中国养老金体系将再次面临入不敷出的情况。因此,本文提出通过国家减持国有资产、发行特别债券和使用政府经常性收入等方式解决养老金缺口的存量,以及通过延长退休年龄、养老金制度重新设定的调整和加入补充政策解决养老金缺口的流量的改进建议,希望对中国养老金制度的持续发展提供一点帮助。 【英文摘要】Pension system is an important part to social system, but because of the aging population and other factors, the pension system of pay-as-you-go faced crisis. Under such background, China reformed the pension system into the combination of social fund and personal accounts in 2005. However, the reform also brings some new problems, such as transition cost, the new balance of social fund and personal accounts are what this article aim to solve.At first, this article analyzes the current situation and gaps after the pension reform in China, and points out the external and internal factors which cause the gap. Second, it bases on the theory of general equilibrium, uses the theory of actuarial to construct the social fund, personal accounts gap and transition cost model as the basic framework of this article. Then it sets related parameters base on the actual situation of China to do empirical research, predict the pension gap from 2005 to 2030, and analyze the balance of supply and demand. Finally, according to the results, it gives out some ways to solve pension gap in stocks and flows.According to the empirical research, at the beginning of Chinese pension reform, social fund surplus and personal account in a gap, while the transition cost is the major part. However, after two decade