气象服务效益评价研究和业务进展-中国气象局图书馆.pdfVIP

Progress 研究进展 气象服务效益评估研究和业务进展 姚秀萍 吕明辉 张晓美 王丽娟 王昕 （中国气象局公共气象服务中心，北京 100081） 摘要：介绍了气象服务效益评估工作在国内外的发展概况，列举了气象服务效益评估过程所涉及的社会效益、经济效益 等方面的评估理论和技术方法，给出了我国气象服务效益评估领域中的成果，尤其是中国气象局公共气象服务中心成立 （2008年）后，气象服务评估方面的业务进展和成果，同时展望了气象服务效益评估相关工作。指出，在理论上，气 象服务效益评估理论和技术方法急需充实和完善，气象服务效益评估涉及多学科多领域，需要数理统计学和社会学等学 科理论和技术方法的支撑；在业务上，气象服务效益评估业务除了和国际接轨之外，还需要有中国气象本身的属性和特 征，应该拥有长、中、短期各种产品；为此人才队伍建设显得愈发重要。 关键词：气象服务，效益评估，进展 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2012.03.006 Research and Operational Advance on Weather Service Benefit Assessment Yao Xiuping, Lu Minghui, Zhang Xiaomei, Wang Lijuan, Wang Xin (Public Meteorological Service Center of CMA, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081) Abstract: The evolution situation and the prospect about the weather service benefit assessment (shorten as WSBA) is introduced in this paper. The theories and techniques about WRBA concerned with social benefit and economic benefit are exhibited. The achievements on WSBA, especially after the foundation of the CMA Public Weather Service in 2008, are showed. It is indicated that the theory and the technique of WSBA need to be added and perfected because WSBA covers multi-subjects such as mathematics, statistics, sociology and so on. It also shows that WSBA ought to develop various WSBA products, taking into account the weather service features in China. Therefore, more attention must be drawn theoretically and practically, and the talented people are urgently needed. Key words: weather services, benefits evaluation, advance 1 引言 家，学术界也针对相关问题展开了一系列的研究，为 随着社会、经济和科技的发展，气象服务对经济 我国进一步深入开展气象服务效益评估工作，推进气 建设、社会发展和人民生活的影响日益明显，气象服 象事业持续快速地发展奠定了很好的基础。本文在回 务也从提供简单的气象信息服务，转变为产生经济效 顾国内外气象服务效益评估发展现状的基础上，介绍 益的社会生产力，从而使得效益问题始终贯穿于气象 了气象服务效益评估的理