Web2.0发展现状与趋势分析.doc

Web2.0发展现状与趋势分析 摘要：2005年，web2.0浪潮席卷了整个互联网业，互联网的面貌正以史无前例的速度改变，人们通过网络已经可以完成比之前多得多的工作，得到更丰富、更精确、更迅捷的反馈，以及更加美妙的体验。 由于该浪潮迅猛发展，众人在惊愕其五光十色耀眼迷离的同时开始了形形色色的描述与评说，但其发展速度过于惊人，学者和企业家还来不及对其进行系统的总结分析和全景展现。 本文从应用和商业模式入手，以分析总结行业现状和提供前瞻性见解为指导思想，应用长尾理论、六度分隔理论、博弈论，结合网络用户需求模型，通过对web2.0的核心特质和现有商业模式及分析，总结了成功的应用和模式特点，展望了web2.0的发展趋势及可能遇到的障碍，提出了许多独到的新颖见解，为学习和研究web2.0提供了有益的参考。具体研究内容如下： 首先从宏观层面对web2.0进行概念阐述，分析其与web1.0的显著区别，指出它对互联网的革命性的意义，接着就六种web2.0典型应用——博客、RSS、维客、网摘、SNS、P2P 分别对其概念、主要功能与核心价值作了全面总结。 其次，以大量案例为基础分别分析了上述六种应用的现有商业模式，并结合互联网的中国特色与web2.0的革命性元素，勾勒了成功模式的样板雏形并举例做进一步阐述。 最后，引入网络用户需求模型（四层论）作为理论分析工具，辅以国内互联网发展历程和用户需求变迁的实证分析，研究未来一段时间内的热点需求层次，并根据提出web2.0热门业务预测，同时从自身瓶颈、跨行业壁垒、“速度死亡”危机等角度分析了web2.0的阻碍因素，指明其长远发展趋势必然是与电信业务“相裹挟而前进”。 关键词：长尾理论，点击加瓦片，在线生活，速度死亡 ABSTRACT：The wave of web 2.0 has swept over the whole Internet world in the year of 2005, with so many transformations which people have never image before. Currently, we can do so much work, getting more abundant, accurate, rapid, feedback and greater experience. This wave has amazed many people all over the world and some of them began to try describing and commenting on it. However, these scholars and enterprisers failed to sum up or analyze the panorama of web2.0, because of its surprising speed. In this paper, I tried to analyze the actuality of the industry and advance some forecasting opinions. Using Long Tail theory, Six Degrees of Separation theory, Game theory, and Internet Users Demand model, I analyzed the business model and key trait of web2.0, summarizing its successful application and characteristics of its model. The rough contents are as follow: Firstly, I expatiated the concept of web2.0 macroscopically, comparing it with web1.0, pointing out its significance in Net-volition. Then I analyzed six applications of web2.0 which were Blog, RSS, Wiki, Social bookmark, SNS, P2P, summarizing their concepts, primary functions and core values. Secondly, I analyzed the business model of the six applications, using a plenty of business cases