物流产业与三大产业联动发展关系研究_以北京市为例精选.pdfVIP

12 3 ( ) Vol. 12 No1 3 2013 7 Jour al of Beiji g Jiaoto g U iversity( Social Scie ces Editio ) Jul. 2013 ) ) ) 以北京市为例 宋 杨, 高宏伟 ( 北京交通大学 经济管理学院, 北京 100044) : 以北京市为例研究物流业与三大产业之间存 的相互关系, 可得出以下结论: 北京市第一产业对物流 产业需求和影响有限, 第二产业的物流需求量大约是第三产业的3 倍左右所以随着北京市产业结构的进一 步升级, 物流需求量会继续增长但增长速率会减慢同时, 虽然第三产业对物流业需求的前期投入较大, 但 从长远来看, 第三产业的发展将会减少物流成本同时, 定量研究表明, 北京市物流业的发展能够推动北京市 产业结构的调整, 带动产业升级 : 物流产业; 三大产业; 协整检验; 灰色关联度分析 : F06115 :A : 1672-8106(2013) 03-0001-06 On the Interactive Development of Logistics Industry and Three Maj or Industries ) ) ) A Case Study of Beiji g SONG Ya g, GAO Ho g-wei ( School of Eco omics a d Ma ageme t, Beiji g Jiaoto g U iversity, Beiji g 100044, Chi a) Abstract :This paper makes a case study of Beiji g to a alyze the relatio ship betwee logistics i - dustry a d the developme t of the three major i dustries. The result show s that the eed a d the impact of the first i dustry o logistic i dustry are restrictive, w hile the eed of logistics i dustry from the seco d i dustry is 3 times greater tha that of the third i dustry . With the further opti- mizatio a d upgradi g of the i dustrial structure of Beiji g, logistic dema d w ill i crease but w ith a slow er rate. Mea while, i the lo g ru , as the third i dustry develops, the total logistics cost w ill be low ered, though the third i dustry eeds larger i itial i vestme t. O the other ha d, through qua titative a alysis, w e fi d that the developme t of logistics ca speed up the process of i dustrial optimizatio , a d promote i dustrial upgradi g. Key words: logistics i dustry; three major i dustries; co-i tegratio test; the