den Elzen (2005) Meeting the EU 2C climate target global and regional emission implications资料.pdfVIP

Report 728001031/2005 Meeting the EU 2°C climate target: global and regional emission implications * M.G.J. den Elzen ** M. Meinshausen * Corresponding author: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP associated with the RIVM), PO Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands, e-mail: michel.den.elzen@mnp.nl; tel +31 30 2744584; fax: +31 30 2744464 ** Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH Zurich), Environmental Science Department, Rämistrasse 101,CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland, e-mail: malte.meinshausen@env.ethz.ch. At present, visiting scientist at: Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA. This research was performed with the support of the Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment as part of the International Climate Change Policy Project (M/728001 Internationaal Klimaatbeleid) Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP associated with the RIVM), PO Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands, telephone: +31 30 274 274 5, website: www.mnp.nl Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency page 2 of 44 Abstract Meeting the EU 2°C climate target: global and regional emission implications This report presents a set of multi-gas emission pathways for different CO -equivalent 2 concentration stabilization levels, i.e. 400, 450, 500 and 550 ppm CO -equivalent, along with 2 an analysis of their global and regional reduction implications and implied probability of achievi