城市生态文明建设进程中生态足迹的动态演变及驱动因子分析——以南宁市为例.DOCVIP

城市生态文明建设进程中生态足迹的动 态演变及驱动因子分析 例 以南宁市为 鹏繡胡宝清  广西师范学院北部湾环境演变与资源利用教育部重 点实验室广西地表过程与智能模拟实验室 用扩展的STTRPAT模型、主成分冋归分析法，对南宁市2 0 0520 1 2年生态足迹、 化石能源足迹的驱动机制进行分析，并对南宁市经济增长与生态足迹、化石能源 足迹的演变关系进行Kuzncts曲线检验。结果表明：总人口、人均GDP、城市化 率对南宁市生态足迹、化石能源足迹具有正向驱动作用，而万元GDP能耗、第三 产业产值比重对生态足迹、化石能源足迹的驱动作用为负向，在2 0 0520 1 2年经 济增长与生态足迹、化石能源足迹的Kirznets曲线检验中并没有呈现“倒U型”， 南宁市的经济发展仍处于经济増长伴随着生态环境压力増大的阶段。 关键词： 牛.态文明;生态足迹;驱动因子;主成分回归分析; 基金：广西自然科学基金(2016GXNSFAA380087) Study on Dynamic Change of Ecological Footprints and Driving Factors in the Process of Urban Ecological Civilization Construction A Case of Nanning City YU Peng GAO Chao HU Baoqing Guangxi Teachers Education University， Key Laboratory of Environment Change and Resources Use in Beibu Gulf (Ministry of Education) ， Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Intelligent Simulation; Abstract： The improved STIRPAT model, combined with principal component regression analysis method，has been used to analyze the driving mechanism of the Nanning ecological footprint ( energy consumption footprint) in 2005 012, and test the relationship between economic growth and ecological footprint ( energy consumption footprint) by using Kuznets curve. The results show that the population, per capita GDP and urbanization rate has a positive effect on the ecological footprint ( energy consumption footprint) ， while the energy consumption per unit of GDP and the proportion of the tertiary industry’s output contributes negatively to the ecological footprint ( energy consumption footprint) . The relationship between economic growth and ecological footprint ( energy consumption footprint) even hasn’ t shown inverted 〃 U〃 curve. The economic development of Nanning is still in the stage that he economic growth is accompanied by the increase of ecological environment pressure. Keyword： ecological civilization; ecological footprint; driving factors; principal component regression analysis; 0引言 生态足迹模型由加拿大生态学家Rees于1992年提出，并由其生 Wackernagel加以完善，因其直观、可操作性强以及能够定量分析区域生态环境 压力的优点，成为生态经济学与