- 1、本文档共39页,可阅读全部内容。
- 2、原创力文档(book118)网站文档一经付费(服务费),不意味着购买了该文档的版权,仅供个人/单位学习、研究之用,不得用于商业用途,未经授权,严禁复制、发行、汇编、翻译或者网络传播等,侵权必究。
- 3、本站所有内容均由合作方或网友上传,本站不对文档的完整性、权威性及其观点立场正确性做任何保证或承诺!文档内容仅供研究参考,付费前请自行鉴别。如您付费,意味着您自己接受本站规则且自行承担风险,本站不退款、不进行额外附加服务;查看《如何避免下载的几个坑》。如果您已付费下载过本站文档,您可以点击 这里二次下载。
- 4、如文档侵犯商业秘密、侵犯著作权、侵犯人身权等,请点击“版权申诉”(推荐),也可以打举报电话:400-050-0827(电话支持时间:9:00-18:30)。
查看更多
曼昆14
Learning objectives In this chapter, you will learn about two policy debates: Should policy be active or passive? Should policy be by rule or discretion? Question 1: Should policy be active or passive? U.S. Real GDP Growth Rate, 1960:1-2001:4 Arguments for active policy Recessions cause economic hardship for millions of people. The Employment Act of 1946: “it is the continuing policy and responsibility of the Federal Government to…promote full employment and production.” The model of aggregate demand and supply (Chapters 9-13) shows how fiscal and monetary policy can respond to shocks and stabilize the economy. Change in unemployment during recessions Arguments against active policy Long variable lags inside lag: the time between the shock and the policy response takes time to recognize shock takes time to implement policy, especially fiscal policy outside lag: the time it takes for policy to affect economy Automatic stabilizers definition: policies that stimulate or depress the economy when necessary without any deliberate policy change. They are designed to reduce the lags associated with stabilization policy. Examples: income tax unemployment insurance welfare Forecasting the macroeconomy Because policies act with lags, policymakers must predict future conditions. Ways to generate forecasts: Leading economic indicators: data series that fluctuate in advance of the economy Macroeconometric models:Large-scale models with estimated parameters that can be used to forecast the response of endogenous variables to shocks and policies The LEI index and Real GDP, 1960s The LEI index and Real GDP, 1970s The LEI index and Real GDP, 1980s The LEI index and Real GDP, 1990s Mistakes Forecasting the Recession of 1982 Forecasting the macroeconomy Because policies act with lags, policymakers must predict future conditions. The Lucas Critique Due to Robert Lucaswon Nobel Prize in 1995 for “rational expectations” Forecasting the effects of policy changes has often bee
您可能关注的文档
最近下载
- 数学学科课和数学活动课.docx
- 推台锯操作规程.pdf VIP
- Unit1Music测试卷2024-2025学年沪教版(五四制)七年级英语下册.docx VIP
- DB51∕T 940-2009 草原有害生物防治农药安全使用规范.pdf
- 医疗器械注册质量管理体系核查指南.pdf
- 江苏省南京市第二十九学校2023-2024学年九年级下学期第一次月考英语试题和答案详解.pdf
- 二年级上册语文素材指鹿为马人教部编版.ppt
- 2024年宁夏银川市单招职业倾向性测试题库及答案(全优).docx VIP
- 第五课 为什么我一个人站着吃.pptx VIP
- 17J925-1_压型金属板建筑构造.docx VIP
文档评论(0)