固定汇率机制中的外汇投机.pdf

Currency Speculation i n Fixed Excha nge Rate Regimes Theory and Empirical Evidence Table of Conten旬 L削oJFigun到 XI ListoJTab阳 XIII 刷刷bbreviations xv List oJGeneral 吵mbo/sXVll 1. General Rem町ks………………………………·……….1 1.1 lntroduction ……………………………………………1 1.2 Pwpose of也aτbesis..………………… 2 2. Overview of FiIed EIchange Rate 1t嗨恤剧…..…..…..…..…..…..…..…..…5 2.1 C1assification ofExchange Rate Regimes5 2.2 Benefits 皿.dDrawbacl西 ofFixed Exchange Rate Regimes 9 2 .3 Historica1 Types ofFixed Exchange Rate Regimes 13 3. Tb回ries of Currency Sp田u1ation in Fixed Exchange Rate Regim嗣………23 3.1 First-Generation Mode 1s…………………………………………23 3. 1.1 The SALANT-HENDERSON Mooel23 3. 1.2TheKRu由IANModel I…………… 28 3. 1.3 The FI.O口ID-GARBER Mode 135 3.1 .4 Summary First-Generation Models ………41 3.2 Secon.d(油田tion Models 47 3.2.1 The OBsTFELD Model 47 3.2.2Summary S田ond-G回自由on Models 57 3.3 τbird-Generation Models ………………………… 62 3.3.1 The C口RSE1TI-PESENTI-ROUBINI Model ………………..… 62 3.3.2 Summary Third-Generation Models ……………….70 4. Emplrlcal Evidence on CuπencyCris四In FiIed EIchange Rate ltegi回国...73 4.1τbe 1992-1993 EMSαt田s74 4.2τbe 1994-1995 Mexicanαisis 81 4.3τbe 1997-1998 Asian Crisis86 5. Pollcy Op咀oos…...………...……..…m…...……..…m…...……m…91 6. Conclusions ……………………………·…………97 6.1 Resume 97 6.2 Outlook 99 X Table of Conten阻 MathematicaI Appendix 101 Appendix 1 101 Appendix Il. …102 Appendix III 107 Appendix IV Il5 Appendix V 123 Bibliogr甲妙， 125 List of Figures Figure 1; Classifica但on ofExchange Ra阳Regimesaεcording 阳CORDEN (2002) 6 Figure 2: Rea1ignm回恒阻d Bands ofFlu时回tions in 也eBWSand也eEMS19 Figure 3: P