外文文献海因里希金字塔和职业安全.pdfVIP

Safety Science 101 (2018) 180–189 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Safety Science journal homepage: /locate/safety Heinrichs pyramid and occupational safety: A statistical validation MARK methodology ⁎ Pablo Marshall , Alejandro Hirmas, Marcos Singer Escuela de Administración, Pontifi cia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T Keywords: Heinrich’s pyramid, which postulates that the severity distribution of occupational accidents is relatively con- Bayesian models stant, is one of the main tools for management of occupational safety. However, existing evidence suggests that Heinrich’s pyramid decreases in minor accidents have not always been followed by similar decreases in serious and fatal accidents. Occupational safety To test the statistical validity of the pyramid, we propose a Bayesian two-part model: the first part estimates Safety assessment accident rates using a Poisson-gamma distribution, and the second part estimates the proportion of minor, Fatal accidents serious and fatal accidents using a Multinomial-Dirichlet distribution. If this proportion does not change when the accident rate is reduce