全球资产投资机会定位分化再现；欧洲央行及美联储会议前的交易及持仓状况.pdfVIP

GOAL: vs. 2016 2016 12 70 QE / 500 QE /2015 50 ETF vs. / 111 Europe vs. US equity performance 100 US$/EUR 109 80 US/ Bund 10-yr rate differential (RHS) 107 60 105 40 103 20 101 0 99 -20 97 -40 bps 95 -60 1 year before first Fed rate hike 1 year after We revisit our GOAL asset allocation ahead of the ECB (December 3) and Fed (December 16), and in context of the key themes and forecasts from our economists outlooks (see Global Economics Analyst: A Stealthy Path to Full Employment, November 18, 2015 and Global Markets Analyst: Top 10 Market Themes for 2016, November 19, 2015). Our economists expect a moderate pick-up in global growth driven by a stabilization of hard-hit EM economies and a small acceleration in Europe and Japan. While the recovery has disappointed on GDP growth, G7 unemployment rates have declined at their fastest rate since 1970. Key risks are: Rate shock, sharp oil price declines and China Yuan devaluation. Over 12-months, a pick-up in growth coupled with smaller declines in commodity prices supports a gradual move higher in inflation and our pro-risk asset allocation (Overweight equities, Underweight bonds). We remain constructive on equities, mainly for Europe and Japan. However, the return trajectory is flattening compared to the last 5 years. With the market priced for a shallow rate hike cycle and bonds still underpricing inflation risk, in our view