山坡地社区疏散避难解除雨量基准制定初探－以-中华水土保持学会.PDF

1 山坡地社區疏散避難解除雨量基準制定初探－以臺北市 老舊聚落為例 [1*] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] 紀柏全 沈哲緯 冀樹勇 黃立遠 林士淵 潘信元 摘 要 臺北市政府工務局大地工程處率地方政府之先，訂有山坡地老舊聚落警戒雨量解除原則， 然實務操作上仍相當程度仰賴人為經驗判斷 ，本研究利用2005 年後6 場颱風事件及期間崩塌案例進 行驗證，發現目前訂定之警戒解除基準尚有調整空間。參考土石流警報解除基準，建議將警戒解除基 準調整為：已發布紅色警戒之聚落，6 小時內累積雨量低於 10 mm ；已發布黃色警戒之聚落，3 小時 內累積雨量低於 10 mm ；經過驗證，初步證明可滿足警戒解除之安全考量。另外，應用臺北市「住 宅邊坡崩塌潛感評估模式」及上述崩塌案例，反算求取警戒解除之機率門檻值，並據以研提警戒解除 基準之優化流程，期降低人為經驗判斷成分，期使臺北市山坡地老舊聚落疏散避難警戒基準更臻完備。 關鍵詞：山坡地社區、警戒雨量基準、疏散避難解除。 Rainfall Threshold Value for Landslide Warning Lifting: A Case Study of Hillside Resident Community in Taipei City Po-Chuan Chi [1*] Che-Wei Shen [1] Shu-Yeong Chi [1] Li-Yuan Huang [2] Shih-Yuan Lin [2] Sin-Yuan Pan [2] ABSTRACT The rainfall threshold value for landslide warning lifting is very difficult to be formulated since the effects of rainfall uncertainty and infiltration hysteresis . The landslides happened in Taipei city during 6 typhoon events after 2005 were used as the verification sample in this study. The verification concluded that the threshold values preliminarily formulated by the Geotechnical Engineering Office, Public Works Department, Taipei City Government seem not conservative enough. Hence, the threshold value for debris-flow warning lifting established by Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (Council of Agriculture, Executive Yuan), is referred to draft a new threshold for landslide warning lifting: 6-hours accumulated rainfall less than 10 mm for Red Alert and 3-hours accumulated rainfall less than 10 mm for Yellow Alert. The landslid