The Dynamics of Deterministic Chaos in Numerical Weather Prediction Models文档.pdfVIP

The Dynamics of Deterministic Chaos in Numerical Weather Prediction Models A. Mary Selvam Deputy Director (Retired) Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune 411 008, India email: amselvam@ web sites: /~amselvam /index.html Proc. American Meteorological Society 8th Conf. Numerical Weather Prediction, February 1988, Baltimore, MD., USA. 1. Introduction Atmospheric weather systems are coherent structures consisting of discrete cloud cells forming patterns of rows/streets, mesoscale clusters (MCC) and spiral bands which maintain their identity for the duration of their appreciable life times in the turbulent shear flow of the planetary Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL). The existence of coherent structures (seemingly systematic motion) in turbulent flows has been well established during the last 20 years of research in turbulence. It is still, however debated whether these structures are the consequences of some kind of instabilities (such as shear, or centrifugal instabilities) or whether they are manifestations of some intrinsic universal properties of any turbulent flow (Levich, 1987). The coherent cloud structures in the apparent chaotic (turbulent) flow of the ABL is associated with large values of Reynolds number (Re) up to 1012 and by convention is described by the inherently non-linear Navier-Stokes (NS) equations. Numerical weather prediction models do not give realistic forecasts because of the following inherent limitations: (1) the non-linear governing equations for atmospheric flows do not have exact analytic solutions and being sensitive to initial conditio