南非宏观经济：进行一场战斗.pdfVIP

South Africa: Waging a battle  Ministerial changes have hampered South Africa’s public-sector wage talks, now in ‘injury time’ Author: after the previous deal expired, but we expect negotiators to conclude another three-year deal. Jeffrey Schultz Senior Economist  We expect the agreement to satisfy the Treasury’s compensation ceiling by balancing above- BNP Paribas South Africa inflation rises for lower-payed workers with CPI-linked or sub-CPI ones for the higher-paid.  Though union density is picking up again, the labour movement has fragmented in recent years and its power to push through high wage demands has diminished. Public-sector wage talks in Public-sector wage negotiations between South Africa’s unions and the government under the injury time aegis of the Public Service Coordinating Bargaining Council kicked off in September last year – unusually early, perhaps in anticipation of challenges ahead. Indeed, the 2015– 18 deal expired on 1 April without a new one in place. While it is not unusual for the talks to run past their deadline, the current round has been particularly tricky due to political shake-ups. New minister running President Cyril Ramaphosa’s appointment of Ayanda Dlodlo as minister of public service and wage negotiations administration in February seems to have been met with some hostility from unions (see, for example, the statement from Congress of South African Trade Unions on 4 April). We also think