房价与银行信贷之间的双向互动关系研究：以芬兰为例.外文翻译.docxVIP

1.Oikarinen，Elias.Interaction betweenHousing Prices andHousehold Borrowing: The Finnish Case[J].Journal ofBankingFinance，2009(4)：747–756.Abstract Employing time series econometrics this study shows that there has been a significant two-way interaction between housing prices and housing loan stock in Finland since the financial liberalization in the late 1980s. Before the financial deregulation the interaction was substantially weaker. Furthermore, housing appreciation has a notable positive impact on the outstanding consumption loan stock. It appears that there is no similar relationship between stock prices and credit. Understanding the two-way interaction between housing prices and credit is of importance, since the interdependence is likely to augment boom–bust cycles in the economy and increase the fragility of the financial sector.Introduction Theory predicts that housing prices are affected by the availability of credit. In particular, better availability of credit is likely to increase demand for housing if households are borrowing-constrained. On the other hand, housing prices may significantly influence household borrowing through various wealth effects. In line with the theory, credit cycles have coincided with housing price cycles in a number of countries (e.g. IMF, 2000, BIS, 2001 and Goodhart and Hofmann, 2007). The linkages between housing prices and household borrowing are of importance for several reasons. Firstly, better forecasts for housing price movements and for changes in household borrowing may be established if the interaction between credit and housing markets is accounted for. This is of significance not only for construction companies and banks but also for the monetary and fiscal policy – the interaction between housing and credit markets is likely to augment boom–bust cycles in the economy and to increase the fragility of the financial sector. According to Goodhart and Hofmann (2007) mutually reinforcing boom–bust cycles in housing