全球电信发展趋势 Global trends in telecom development.ppt

The state of the market Increasing competition Around two-thirds of telecom subscribers now have a choice of operator More than 99 per cent of mobile and Internet subscribers now have a choice of operator Dominantly private-ownership 19 out of top 20 top public telecom operators are partially or fully private-owned Of the top 20 mobile operators, 16 are fully-private, 3 are partially private, 1 is state-owned Independent regulators There are currently 84 independent regulators (only 12 in 1990) Recent privatisation transactions Telecom Privatisations in Africa The development gap is shrinking but also shifting The share of the telecom market of Low Lower-middle income countries: Fixed-lines: 1984 = 13%; 1998 = 27% Mobile: 1990 = 1.4%; 1998 = 12% Internet hosts: 1993 = 0.1%; July 1999 = 1.7% Some LDCs and CIS Republics are falling further behind in fixed-line networks No growth or decline between 1995-98 in Afghanistan, Armenia, Burundi, DPR Congo, Haiti, Kazakhstan, DPR Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Zambia Forecasting to 2005 Projecting forward current trends By 2005, there could be: 1.4 billion telephone lines 1.1 billion cellular telephone subscribers 400-500 million Internet users These could account for: 250 billion minutes of int’l voice/fax traffic 2.5 trillion minutes of total voice/fax traffic 1’000’000 Gigabits (1 Petabit) per second of Internet traffic Services market of around US$1.1 trillion Equipment market of around US$400 billion Forecasting to 2005 Identifying discontinuities By 2001, less than 10% of int’l traffic will use accounting rate system Domestic interconnect fees will be dominant mode Major price cuts in international calls after 2002/2003 Availability of new infrastructures Impact of Internet pricing model (distance and duration independent) Mobiles exceed fixed-line phones in most OECD countries by 2004/2005 Introduction of “third generation” mobiles after 2001 Generational shift, as new users reje