负利率及其全球影响.pdfVIP

负利率及其全球影响 Negative Interest Rates and it’s Global Impacts 贾晋京 Jia JinJing 首席研究员 Chief Fellow 中国人民大学重阳金融研究院 Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies，Renmin University of China 2017年3月15日，美联储加息至0.75%-1% Federal Reserve raised interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 0.75 percent to 1.00 percent on March 16, 2017. 2017年3月16日，日本央行维持0. １％负利率不变 The BOJ alleged to remain negative interest rate of -0.1 percent on March 16, 2017. 各主要央行利率走势 Trends of major central bank interest rates 负利率源于“经济央行化” Negative interest rate based on the central bank-managed economy. • 低迷的产业经济Downturn industrial economy • 高债务 Heavy debts • 资产负债表型危机Crisis on balance sheet • 经济央行化Central bank-managed economy • 负利率 Negative interest rate 负利率的传导 投资者不得不给资 负利率颠覆了“利率 金融的运行基础— “未来收入总和”就 产假定一个高得不 不能为负”的观念 —贴现率无法计算 不能计算 可能风险溢价 股价、原油、大宗 实体经济因预期收 投资者只能选择投 资产价格无法计算 商品等资产价格暴 入难以核算而投资 机 涨暴跌 不足 Negative interest rate Fundamentals in Investors have to changed the finance—discount The sum of future assume a super concept that the rate rate could not be income could not be duper highly ri