德意志银行 全球经济展望及投资策略研究 2017-9.pdf.pdf

Global o 1 September 2010 r c a Global Economic Perspectives Economics M Table of Contents h Update on recession/deflation risk in Key Economic Forecasts Page 2 c Rising risk of recession and deflation in the US r Page 3 a the US and euro risk in Europe Euro crisis: Mission not yet accomplished Page 11 e s e Central Bank Watch Page 18 R s Rising risk of recession and deflation in the US Global Data Monitor Page 22 t Fears of a double-dip recession and the risk of deflation have risen appreciably. e While our own baseline forecast has not moved that far, the downside risks have Charts of the Week Page 23 k r clearly increased. We review the recent US economic news and what can be a Global Week Ahead Page 24 M gleaned from movements in financial indicators, indexes of leading indicators, and recession probability models. Financial Forecasts Page 26 l a b We find that recession probabilities have in some cases