滦河流域内蒙段径流插补预测研究及径流变化影响评价分析-study on runoff interpolation prediction and analysis of runoff change impact assessment in inner mongolia section of luanhe river basin.docx

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滦河流域内蒙段径流插补预测研究及径流变化影响评价分析-study on runoff interpolation prediction and analysis of runoff change impact assessment in inner mongolia section of luanhe river basin.docx

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滦河流域内蒙段径流插补预测研究及径流变化影响评价分析-study on runoff interpolation prediction and analysis of runoff change impact assessment in inner mongolia section of luanhe river basin

ResearchontheInterpolationandPredictionofRunoffandtheImpactAnalysisonRunoffChangesintheLuanheBasininInnerMongoliaAbstractRunoffisnotonlythebasiclinkofwatercyclebutalsothebasicfactorsofwaterbalance,runoffisthewaterresourcesthatcanbechronicallyutilizedbyhuman,itschangesdirectlyimpactthehumanexistenceandthesocialeconomydevelopment.ThispaperconsidertheutilizationandtheopenquestionofwaterresourcesintheLuanheBasininInnerMongolia,usingthegeostatistics、hydro-meterologicalstatisticalanalysismethodandSWATmodeltorespectivelystudytheinterpolationofmissedhydraulicvariableandtime-spacevarianceanalysis、thetimecharacteranalysisofhydro-meterologicalvariableandtheimpactanalysisonrunoffchanges.It’ssignificanttostudythesequestionswhichcouldprovidescientificsupportforsustainableutilizationofwaterresourcesinthebasin.Mainachievementsofthisstudyare:FirstlyapplyingthemonthlyscaleCokrigingmethodandannualscalehole-effectivenesstime-spaceCokrigingmethodtorespectivelyinterpolatethemissedmonthlyrunoffandannualrunoffdataduring2001-2009forWaigoumenstation,andtheinterpolationresultsarereasonablebyidentification,thistwomethodprovideabetterresearchtechniqueforinterpolatinghydraulicdataapplyingthegeostatistics.Thenanalyzetheannualchanges、seasonalchangesandmonthdistributionchangesofrunoffapplyingthehydro-meterologicalstatisticalanalysismethod.Applyingtheuniversalkrigingmethodwithmultipletimeperiodtostudythespatialvariabilityandthespatialinterpolationofprecipitation.Andtheresultshowsthatcomparedwithothercommonkrigingmethods,themeritsoftheuniversalkrigingmethodwithmultipletimeperiodisthatthismethodconsiderthetime-spacestochasticcharacteristicofhydro-meterologicalvariable,canwellusedthelong-termobservationdata,andprovideabetterresearchtechniqueforspatialvariabilityandspatialinterpolationforhydro-meterologicalvariableintheregionwithsparsestations.Thenanalyzetheannualchanges、seasonalchangesandmonthdistributionchangesofprecipitation、airtemperatureThisstudywassupportedbytheChineseNationalScienceFoundationKeyP