基于分形理论河南省交通运输量预测.doc

基于分形理论的河南省交通运输量预测 摘 要 交通运输量是制定交通运输发展规划的重要依据。因此科学的对交通运输量进行分析和预测，准确的把握交通运输发展趋势及认清交通运输与本地区经济发展的紧密联系，对促进运输资源优化配置，全面提高全省的交通运输现代化水平，发挥各种运输方式的最大效率，提高政府决策的科学性，促进交通运输业规范而高速的发展，加快推进交通现代化，具有十分重要的意义。 本文通过对河南省交通运输货运量的分析，对未来几年的走势进行预测。运用分形方法中的时间序列法，对货运量的数据进行分析和统计，建立分形预测模型。通过对以往数据的发展变化趋势进行分析建立现有数据与时间之间的对应关系，然后再利用这组数列，应用数理统计方法加以处理，以预测未来几年的发展趋势。通过对模型中的维数计算，可以知道增长或下降的持久性，以及增长轨迹是否很平滑，是否很平稳。最后对预测的结果进行分析，预测结果表明，该方法不存在收敛性问题，数据收集简单，计算过程简单明了，具有较好的实用性。货运量时间序列分析进一步表明了预测的合理性，并且通过对误差的分析处理，可以使预测的准确性得到有力的保证。本文对交通运输量的预测，可以作为交通运输业发展的重要依据。 关键词：交通运输，货运量，预测，分形理论，时间序列分析  PREDICTION OF TRAFFIC VOLUME IN HENAN PROVINCE BASED ON FRACTAL THEORY ABSTRACT Traffic volume is the development of transportation an important basis for development planning. Therefore, the transport capacity of science to analyze and predict accurately grasp the trend of transport development and transport in the region recognize the economic development of close ties, to promote the optimal allocation of transportation resources, and comprehensively improve the level of the province of modern transportation, Play a maximum efficiency of various transport modes, improve government decision-making more scientific, standardized and high-speed transport for the development and accelerating the modernization of transport have very important significance. Based on the analysis of freight transport in Henan Province, on the next few years, the trend was predicted. Fractal time series methods, analysis of data on freight and statistics, the establishment of fractal prediction model. Through the development trend of the previous data analysis of existing data and establish the corresponding relationship between the time, and then use this set of series, application of mathematical statistics to be addressed in order to predict the development trend of the next few years. By the dimension of the model calculation, we can see persistent growth or decline, and the growth trajectory is very smooth, it is very smooth. Finally, the predicted re