logistic模型在中国人口预测中应用.docx

 PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT 22 Logistic模型在中国人口预测中的应用 摘 要 人口问题是当今世界的一个热门话题，全球人口总数的不断激增，使得自然资源人均可利用量不断减少，因此对未来人口数量的预测显得十分的重要。随着数学模型的不断发展和应用，数学模型在现实生活中的应用越来越多，所起作用也越来越重要。经典的人口模型——Malthus模型由于存在诸多限制，其预测的结果不太准确。本论文主要是应用Logistic模型来对中国未来几年的人口进行一个粗率的预测，利用显著性进行模型检验，同时展示数学模型在中国人口方面的应用。Logistic模型考虑随着人口的增加，自然增长率、自然因素、环境因素等其它因素对人口的影响，预测结果基本符合我国的人口增长趋势。应用Logistic模型进行人口预测，相比于Malthus模型和灰色预测模型，其拟合度更高，得到的结果更加精确。 关键词：中国人口 人口预测 Logistic模型 显著性检验 Logistic model in the application of forecast the Chinese population Abstract：The population problem is a hot topic in todays world. Worlds population soared, which reduce natural resources per capita availability progressively. Therefore population forecast is very important for the future. With the continuous development of mathematical models and models application, Application of mathematical model in real life becomes more and more, whose work is becoming more and more important as well. By reason that there are many restrictions in the Malthus model the classical population model, the prediction result is not very accurate. This paper mainly uses the Logistic model to roughly predict the population of China in the next few years, and shows the application of mathematical model in terms of population in China at the same time. Logistic model considers the increase of populations natural growth, natural factors, environmental factors and other factors influence on the population, and the prediction results conform to the trend of population growth our country. Compared with the Malthus model and the Grey forecasting model, the prediction results of the Logistic model have a high fitting degree and is also more accurate. Keywords: Chinas population Population forecast Logistic model Test of statistical significance 目录 第1章 前言 1.1 选题的背景和意义………………………………………………………………………………..…………5 1.2 人口数量的可预测性………………………………………………………………………………….…..5 1.3 人口预测模型的发展现状…………………………………………………………………..………..…5 第2章 常用人口预测模型的简述 2.1 Malthus模型7 GM(1,1)预测模型……………………………………