A Statistical Justification for LMP CMAS Center对LMP—CMAS中心统计理由.pptVIP

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A Statistical Justification for LMP CMAS Center对LMP—CMAS中心统计理由.ppt

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A Statistical Justification for LMP CMAS Center对LMP—CMAS中心统计理由

The Impact of Short-term Climate Variations on Predicted Surface Ozone Concentrations in the Eastern US 2020 and beyond Shao-Hang Chu and W.M. Cox US Environmental Protection Agency RTP, NC 27711 Introduction Models are great tools to test ideas. Their usefulness, however, depends on their ability to simulate the reality and predict the future. In air quality management, photochemical models are used to test the emission control strategies and predict future concentrations. However, to clearly identify the effectiveness of our emission control strategies the models are run with a fixed set of meteorology conditions. For multi-year projections, climate variability may have a significant impact on model predictions. For this reason, a combined photochemical/statistical modeling approach is developed. A Hybrid Modeling Approach In this study, the CAMx (v. 3.1) model is used to predict the ozone design value (DV) concentrations at 2020 resulted from all existing and planned emission controls and projected growth. A Statistical model, the critical design value (CDV) model, is then applied to estimate the impact of short-term climate variability on CAMx predicted ozone DV at 2020 and beyond. Critical Design Value Model CDV model is a statistic model which can be used to predict the probability of future violation of the NAAQS at any monitoring site with reasonable length of continuous DV data (Chu, 2000). Its prediction is based on the site specific average pollutant DV concentration, trend and inter-annual variability in the past which is obviously a function of meteorology and emissions. The inter-annual variability of pollutant concentrations due solely to meteorology fluctuations can be isolated from the observed data (Cox and Chu, 1993,1996). CDV - A Statistical Model The design value (DV) is a 3-year average quantity, it is not unreasonable to assume that it is normally distributed and the probability of DV to exceed any value, X, can be expressed as: