国际贸易中战略性贸易保护的博弈分析.DOCVIP

国际贸易中战略性贸易保护的博弈分析( ——兼谈反倾销、特别保障措施和绿色壁垒 1周曙东 2吴方卫 1南京农业大学经贸学院 2上海财经大学财经研究所 摘 要：在WTO的贸易规则框架下，战略性贸易保护仍然是各国政府不可回避的问题，只不过贸易保护的形式有所变化。传统的关税壁垒和非关税壁垒将被抛弃，而反倾销、特别保障措施和绿色壁垒将成为战略性贸易保护的主要措施。两个国家之间的贸易是一个博弈，一般来说纳什均衡点将在一定区间范围内移动，根据双方的实力通过谈判最终达到纳什均衡，这是一个量变的过程。但是一旦商品出口量突破临界点时，就超过了进口国可以容忍的限度，形势发生了质的变化。进口国政府会认为进口产品冲击了本国市场，从而决定进行战略性贸易保护，根据具体情况或采取反倾销措施、特别保障措施或运用绿色壁垒来限制进口。所以有必要研究可能触发贸易保护的临界点。在贸易实务中触发进口国采取保护措施有二个敏感因素：一是价格触发，二是数量触发，在数量触发中又分为进口增幅过大造成的数量触发和进口总量过大造成的数量触发。本文以中日菠菜贸易为例进行了博弈实证分析，触发日本对菠菜进行贸易保护的经济根源是由于日本菠菜生产者、日本农协及其它流通组织受到的损失大于日本蔬菜进口商和消费者的得益，证实日本就是运用绿色壁垒对中国菠菜进行了限制，本文对避免触发贸易保护与化解贸易纠纷提出了一系列战略对策。 关键词：战略性贸易保护 博弈 反倾销 特别保障措施 绿色壁垒 菠菜 Abstract: Under the framework of WTO trade rules, strategic trade protection still remains an issue that every government can not evade, but the form of trade protection could be different. The traditional tariff barriers and non- tariff barriers will be discarded, anti-dumping, special safeguard measures and green barriers constitute the main measures for strategic trade protection. A trade between two counties can be considered as a game, the Nash equilibrium point may shift within a range, the two counties could come to a Nash equilibrium point according to the actual strength and through negotiation, which is a quantitative change process. If the export goes beyond the bounds of the range, the situation comes to a qualitative change. The import country will complain that import commodity brings huge influence on national markets, and then decides to use anti-dumping, special safeguard measures and green barriers to restrict imports. Therefore it is necessary to analyze the up-bound that may cause trade protection. In practice there are two sensitive factors which could induce import country to carry out protection measures, one is price trigger, another is quantity trigger, the quantity trigger may induce by over increase rate or over total quantities of import. The China- Japan spinach trade was used as a case for game theory analysis in th