湖北黄冈中学2010届高三6月适应性考.pptVIP

Risk Attitudes of Children and Adults: Choices Over Small and Large Probability Gains and Losses WILLIAM T. HARBAUGH University of Oregon KATE KRAUSE University of New Mexico LISE VESTERLUND University of Pittsburgh We look at decisions under risk in people ranging in age from 5 to 64. Our primary objective is descriptive: see how risk preferences change with age. In particular, we ask how the tendency to behave in ways that are consistent w/ EUT changes. There’s lots of evidence that college age subjects violate EUT in a variety of ways. If these violations increase with age and experience, this suggests these violations are “real” and important, they might result from the application of learned rules of thumb or habits. If they decrease, it suggests that the violations are more in the nature of mistakes – which is not to say they are not important. We use the SEU model to organize our empirical results. Under SEU, people weight outcomes using subjective, rather than objective weights. This model can accommodate a wide range of deviations from EUT. One familiar example is Cumulative Prospect Theory: (Tversky and Kahneman, 1992) CPT Behavior: 1. Risk-seeking over small-probability gains 2. Risk-aversion over high-probability gains 3. Risk-seeking over high-probability losses 4. Risk-aversion over small-probability losses Subjective Probability Weighting for CPT behavior: Straightforward Protocol: People were offered a choice between a gamble and a sure payoff equal to the gamble’s expected value. (Except for 4 checks for monotonicity.) 14 different choice pairs, 7 over gains, 7 over losses. Choices differed in the probability of a gain (or loss.) Some variation in the specific gambles used. For gains, proportion choosing the gamble, by age. For losses, proportion choosing the gamble, by age. indicates the choice pattern consistent with a reflection point at 1/3 and a regressive weighting function; + indicates the choice pattern least consistent