青岛市降水特征研究与酸雨ph值预测-study on precipitation characteristics and ph value prediction of acid rain in qingdao city.docx

山东科技大学硕士学位论文摘要 山东科技大学硕士学位论文 摘要 摘要 “酸雨”最早由英国化学家 R. A. Smith 于 1872 年在“Air and Rain: The Beginnings of a Chemical Climatology”中提出。酸雨最早出现于工业化的欧洲，现在几乎遍及全球。欧 洲、北美和中国依次是世界第一、二、三大酸雨区。 本文在对酸雨的国内外研究现状进行综述的基础上，利用青岛市近 10 年的酸雨观测 数据，对青岛市的酸雨状况进行了分析研究，主要做了如下几个方面的工作： （1）对青岛市 1994 年?2004 年近十年的降水特征进行了分析，分析了降水的化学 组成、酸雨的时间分布、酸雨的空间分布以及各主要离子的分布。 （2）对降水 pH 值进行了预测研究。对 1994?2004 年青岛市三个测点的降水数据， 利用多元线性回归预测理论，用 SAS 软件进行变量的筛选，得到了多元线性回归方程， 并得到了降水 pH 值的数学期望估计值；利用 AID(Automatic Interaction Detection)预测法， 进行了编程计算，得到了预测规则，并给出了预测的偏差平方和及降水 pH 值的数学期 望估计值；利用偏最小二乘回归理论，对酸雨数据进行了编程计算，得到了偏最小二乘 回归方程，并计算了偏最小二乘回归模型的预测残差平方和降水 pH 值的数学期望估计 值。 （3）分析了青岛市酸雨成因，并指出了酸雨防治对策。 关键词：酸雨 多元线性回归 AID 预测 偏最小二乘回归 ABSTRACT ‘Acid rain’ has been put forward by England chemist R. A. Smith in ‘Air and Rain: The Beginnings of a Chemical Climatology’. Acid rain first appeared in industrialization Europe. Nowadays, acid rain appears all over the world. Europe, North America, China are the first, second, third acid rain area respectively. In this paper a brief introduction of current research of acid rain is given. And the data of acid rain from 1994 to 2004 in Qingdao is analyzed. The main researches of this paper are listed below: The precipitation characters from 1994 to 2004 in Qingdao, which includes the chemical components of precipitation, the time distribution of acid rain, and the space distribution of acid rain are analyzed. Based on the multivariate linear regression theory, the regression variables are selected by SAS system, and the multivariate linear regression model is established. Then the mathematical expectation of the pH value is estimated. Based on the AID (Automatic Interaction Detection), a forecast method and the error square sum of forecast are given. Then the mathematical expectation of the pH value is estimated. Using the partial least square regression theory, the partial least square regression equation the error square sum of forecast are given. Then the mathematical expectation of the pH value is estimated.