供应链中的需求和供给规划幻灯片.pptVIP

8/29/00 S. Chopra / Demand Planning 2 供应链中的需求和供给规划 2.1 供应链需求预测 预测是供应链中战略性和规划性决策的基础 Strategy or design: Forecast Planning: Forecast Operation Actual demand 供应链“推动阶段”的决策也以需求预测为基础 生产: 日程安排,库存管理,总体计划 营销: 销售资源配置, 促销, 新产品开发 财务: 生产线（设备）的投资和预算规划 人事: 雇员计划, 雇佣, 解雇 预测的特征 预测经常会出错，在供应链规划中必须考虑预测误差(或者需求的不确定性) 。 长期预测通常没有短期预测精确。 综合预测通常要比独立预测准确得多，因为综合预测相对于均值的标准差较 预测的基本步骤 理解预测的目的。 将需求规划和预测结合起来。 识别影响需求预测的主要因素。 理解和识别顾客群。 决定采用何种最适当的预测方法。 决定预测的实施和选择计算误差的方法。 预测方法 Qualitative 定性预测方法 Time Series 时间序列方法 Static Adaptive Causal 因果关系法 Simulation 模拟法 被考察需求的构成 被考察需求 (O) =系统需求 (S) + 随机需求 (R) Time Series Forecasting Quarterly Demand at NaturalG Forecasting methods Static Adaptive Moving average Simple exponential smoothing Holt’s model (with trend) Winter’s model (with trend and seasonality) Static Methods Steps : Deseasonalize demand and run linear regression to estimate level and trend Estimate seasonal factors Definitions: Deseasonalized demand: represents the demand that would have been observed in the absence of seasonal fluctuations. The periodidty p is the number of periods after which the seasonal cycle repeats itself. Moving average Is appropriate when demand has no observable trend or seasonality Systematic component of demand = level Equation for an N-period moving average Lt=(Dt+ Dt-1+… + Dt-N+1)/N Ft+1= Lt Example Simple Exponential Smoothing Is appropriate when demand has no observable trend or seasonality Systematic component of demand = level Equation Trend-Corrected Exponential Smoothing (Holts Model) Is appropriate when demand is assumed to have a level and a trend in the systematic component but no seasonality Systematic component of demand = level + trend Equation Trend- and Seasonality-Corrected Exponential Smoothing (Winters Model) is appropriate when the systematic component of demand is assumed to have a level, trend, and seasonal factor. Systematic component of demand = (level + trend) × seasonal factor Equation Summary Error measures