太阳活动对近百年气候变化的影响研究进展-中国气象局图书馆.PDF

Progress 研究进展 太阳活动对近百年气候变化的影响研究进展 1 2 1 2 3 赵亮 徐影 王劲松 丁一汇 肖子牛 （1 国家卫星气象中心/国家空间天气监测预警中心，中国气象局，北京 100081；2 国家气候中心，中国气象局，北京 100081；3 中国气象局气象干部培训学院，北京 100081） 摘要：主要参阅了近十年来的有关文献，回顾和总结了太阳活动对近百年气候变化影响的研究进展。首先，回顾了太阳 活动对全球和区域尺度的温度、季风和降水影响的最新观测证据和模拟结果；其次，从北极涛动（AO）、北大西洋涛动 （NAO）、ENSO、准两年振荡（QBO）等方面总结了太阳活动对各气候模态的可能影响；然后归纳了太阳活动影响气 候变化的三种可能机制（太阳总辐射机制、太阳短波辐射变化机制和能量粒子机制）的研究进展。最后提出了该领域一 些重要而未解决的科学问题，对未来的研究提出了一些展望，并简要阐述了太阳—气候研究这一交叉学科的重要意义。 关键词：太阳活动，气候变化，太阳总辐射，紫外辐射，银河宇宙射线 Progress in Studies on the Influence of Solar Activity on Climate Change during the Last 100 Years 1 2 1 2 3 Zhao Liang , Xu Ying , Wang Jingsong , Ding Yihui , Xiao Ziniu (1 National Satellite Meteorological Center /National Center for Space Weather, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 2 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 3 CMA Training Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081) Abstract: Progress in studies for the last decade on the relationship between solar activity and decadal climate change, is reviewed. First, recent observations and simulations for the influences of solar activity on the global and regional temperature, monsoon and precipitation, and the regional climatic modes including the Atlantic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), ENSO, and the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) are reviewed and summarized. Second, three mechanisms proposed to explain these climate observations are described, including the effects of variations in total solar irradiance, ultraviolet radiation and energetic particles. Finally, we have presented some important and unsolved problems for future resear