房地产市场与中国货币供应机制-金融学专业论文.docxVIP

摘 要 伴随全球房地产价格的快速上涨、住房抵押贷款规模的不断扩张和房地产投资 比重的持续增加，房地产市场业已成为世界经济体系的重要组成部分。目前，学术 界对于房地产市场的研究已颇为成熟，现有文献大多围绕着房地产市场运行状况与 经济波动的关系而展开，对于房地产市场与货币政策的相互作用则较少涉及。 本文通过将房地产设定为抵押贷款必需品，从而将房地产市场纳入进本文动态 随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型的分析框架中。利用季度数据，借助 Kalman 滤波、似 然比检验、脉冲响应分析、仿真分析及政策分析等方法，本文研究了来自房地产市 场的冲击对我国经济的影响，并试图对我国近十年来房地产市场与货币供应机制的 相互作用进行了相关探讨。研究结果表明，在本文的经济体系中，来自房地产市场 的冲击的持久性强于其他外生冲击；我国当前的货币供应机制对当期和前一期的房 地产价格、经济总产出和通胀指数均做出了逆周期的响应；房地产市场首付比例的 大小显著地影响了我国货币政策对消费、房价和经济总产出的调控效果。然而通过 对比不同货币供应机制的政策前沿，本文发现我国货币供应机制对房地产价格做出 的响应并未显著地提高货币政策稳定产出和通胀的效果，因而中央银行若以稳定经 济为政策的首要目标，则货币政策根据房地产市场运行状况做出的调整并非必要。 关键词：房地产市场 货币供应机制 首付比 货币政策前沿 动态随机一般均衡 Abstract Accompanied by the fast-rising house price all over the world, ever-expanding scale of home mortgage loans and persistent increasing proportion of investment in the housing market, housing market has already been an important part of world economic system. So far, the academic research on the housing market has become quite mature. Most of the existing literature mainly focused on the relationship between housing market and economic fluctuation, while rarely mentioned the reaction between housing market and money supply mechanism. In this paper real estate was set to be a requisite as collateral for loans. In this way, we introduce housing market into the DSGE model. With the quarterly data, Kalman filter, likelihood ratio test, impulse response analysis, simulating and policy analysis were used to investigate the impacts of shocks coming from housing market on China’s economy and further discuss the reaction between housing market and money supply mechanism in China. The findings are as follows，the persistence of the shocks coming from housing market are stronger than the other shocks mentioned in this paper; current money supply mechanism of China has a counter cycle response to this and last term’s house price, total output and inflation; the value of down payment ratio of the housing market can significantly affect the macro-control effect of monetary policy towards