房地产上市公司财务预警分析-金融学专业论文.docx

Study on Financial Distress Prediction For Listed Real Estate Companies Specialty:Master of Business Administration Name：Shao Hui Instructor: Prof. Li Lin ABSTRACT The real estate industry characterized by long period, high risks, high investment, and high return is a pillar industry of national economy and social development in our country. In recent years, enterprises have faced more and more complex and increasingly serious environmental challenges because of intense competition. The adjustment and control of government’s macro policies is becoming tighter. The debt-to-assets ratio of real estate developers is above 70% universally. Financial crisis in real estate industry is gradual increasing. The research on the early warning is very important and having practical significance. Firstly, on the basis of summarizing the foreign and domestic research related to financial distress prediction, the thesis analyzed the features of the real estate industry as well as the definition, characteristics and causes of the financial crisis. Secondly, used the early warning theory, the paper chose thirty-one variables from financial and non-financial factors in the listed companies. The next part was the options of the samples and data. From the significant analysis, fifteen remarkably distinguished financial factors were selected as the early warning indicators. Based on the factor analysis and the Principle components-Logistic regression analysis, the thesis constructed the model of financial distress prediction. Thirdly, the part was the model’s testing, the conclusion and limitations of the research. At last, the thesis presented some measures of how to prevent financial crisis in the real estate business. The empirical study shows that the predicted variables mainly reflected the operation and management status of the quoted companies. The model can forecast the financial crisis in the real estate industry accurately. The growth rate of net asset, quick ratio, per-