公共品供给结构偏向对居民消费影响的实证研究-国民经济学专业论文.docx

万方数据 万方数据 暨南大学硕士学位论文 中文摘要 改革开放以来，我国地方政府的财政支出规模日益庞大，但居民消费率不但 偏低，且呈不断下降的趋势。在我国目前投资和出口双双疲软的情况下，消费被 赋予了更多的期望。 虽然此前已有大量的文献从政府财政支出的角度研究了政府支出对居民消费 的影响，但鲜有学者从政府公共品供给结构偏向的角度研究居民消费。本文通过 将“公共品供给结构偏向”指标化，探讨公共品供给结构偏向对居民消费的影响。 本文首先从理论上分析了地方政府在提供公共品时重经济性公共品而轻民生性公 共品的内在机制，以及公共品供给结构偏向影响居民消费率的具体路径；然后在 理论分析的基础上分别采用二阶系统 GMM 估计方法和二阶差分 GMM 估计方法， 并利用我国 1990-2011 年的省际面板数据对该理论进行实证检验，实证结果表明： 首先，公共品供给结构偏向对居民消费率有非常显著的抑制效应，公共品供给结 构偏向程度越大，其对居民消费率的抑制效应也就越显著；其次，政府财政支出 的扩大并没有挤占居民消费，而是从某种程度上促进了居民消费率的提高；再次， 我国居民在消费上还存在着较强的“棘轮效应 ”，居民消费较为稳定，因此，本期 消费的增加能够显著提高居民下期消费水平。基于结论，我们必须从改革我国现 有的财政制度和官员激励机制，合理优化两类公共品的供给结构入手，以改善我 国的消费环境。 关键词：公共品；公共品供给结构偏向；居民消费率；动态面板 I Abstract The fiscal expenditures for governmental administration keep increasing since the initiation of the Reform and Open Policy. Meanwhile, the domestic consumption ratio has been decreasing from a relative low level. However, as the weak investment and export are unable to bring a great promotion to the economic development, the domestic consumption is expected to be the key aspect. Majority of previous studies of the influences of governmental expenditures on domestic consumption were focused on fiscal aspects, but rare researchers pay attention to the structural inclination of public goods supply. In this work, the structural inclination of public goods supply was quantified and indexed, whose influences on the domestic consumption was then discussed. The inner mechanism was theoretically analyzed that the government inclined to provide economic public goods rather than welfare goods, as well as the specific realization routine of the influences.Then second-order system GMM estimation method, second-order difference GMM estimation methods and inter-provincial panel data from 1990 to 2011 were applied to testify the analysis empirically.The following results were obtained. firstly the structural inclination of public goods supply outstandingly restrain the domestic consumption ratio, and the restrain effect is in positive related with the incli