气候变化对北碚区蔬菜气候生产潜力影响研究.PDFVIP

中国农学通报 2013,29(20): 165-169 Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 气候变化对北碚区蔬菜气候生产潜力影响研究 吉 莉，李家启，李 强，汪志辉 （重庆市北碚区气象局，重庆北碚400700 ） 摘 要：为了最大限度地提高北碚区蔬菜产量，促使蔬菜充足供应和农民增收，利用北碚区1951—2010 年逐日平均气温、降水量等气象资料，结合周广胜气候生产力模型，统计了北碚区蔬菜气候生产潜力。 在此基础上，采用线性回归、MK 突变、小波理论等方法重点分析其变化分布特征。结果显示：北碚区蔬 2 菜气候生产力呈上升趋势，并具有2~4 年、12~ 13年的周期振荡，年平均蔬菜生产力为11412.11 kg/(hm ·a) ； 蔬菜气候生产力存在明显的突变，影响北碚气候生产潜力变化的主要因素是降水量。建立了北碚蔬菜 气候生产潜力预测模型，模拟的蔬菜气候生产力与实际蔬菜产量的变化趋势基本相同，当北碚气候处于 暖干型气候（温度增加3℃，降水量减少10% ）和暖湿型气候时，对蔬菜的生长最为有利。 关键词：气候变化；蔬菜；气候生产潜力 中图分类号：S16 文献标志码：A 论文编号：2012-3972 The Effect of Climate Change on Climatic Production Potential of Vegetable in Beibei District Ji Li, Li Jiaqi, Li Qiang, Wang Zhihui (MeteorologicalBureauofBeibeiDistrictinChongqing, Beibei Chongqing 400700) Abstract: In order to maximize the current vegetable production, prompting vegetables sufficient supply and increasing farmers ’income, the author used daily average air temperature, precipitation, meteorological data from 1951 to 2010 in Beibei District, combined with Zhou Guangsheng climate productivity model, calculated the climate production potential of vegetable in Beibei District, on this basis, using linear regression, the mutation of MK, wavelet theory, and analyzed the distribution characteristics of it. The results showed: vegetable climate productivity of Beibei was rising, with periodic oscillation of 2-4 years, 12-13 years, the 2 average annual vegetable productivity was 11412.11 kg/(hm ·a); vegetables cl