对外贸易对我国省级经济增长影响基于空间杜宾模型实证研究.pdfVIP

Statistics and Application 统计学与应用, 2017, 6(2), 156-164 Published Online June 2017 in Hans. /journal/sa /10.12677/sa.2017.62018 The Effect of China’s Foreign Trade on Provincial Economic Growth —An Empirical Research Based on the Spatial Durbin Model Zhaoyun Gu, Huiguo Zhang, Xijian Hu College of Mathematics and System Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi Xinjiang th th th Received: May 19 , 2017; accepted: Jun. 15 , 2017; published: Jun. 19 , 2017 Abstract In this paper, the spatial panel data model is used to analyze the relationship between the foreign trade and provincial economic growth. The results show that: The economics of the provinces has the agglomeration effect and the economic development of the province will drive the economy of the surrounding provinces. The growth of exports can promote the economic growth, but the im- port can hamper the development of economy, and the positive effect of the export to the economy is more than the hindrance of the import to the economy. Keywords Foreign Trade, Economic Growth, Spatial Panel Model, Spillover Effect, Indirect Effect 对外贸易对我国省级经济增长的影响 ——基于空间杜宾模型的实证研究 顾召云，张辉国，胡锡健 新疆大学数学与系统科学学院，新疆 乌鲁木齐 收稿日期：2017年5月19 日；录用日期：2017年6月15 日；发布日期：2017年6月19 日 摘 要 本文运用空间面板数据模型，分析我国各省市对外贸易与经济增长的关系。研究结果表明：各省的经济 文章引用: 顾召云, 张辉国, 胡锡健. 对外贸易对我国省级经济增长的影响——基于空间杜宾模型的实证研究[J]. 统 计学与应用, 2017, 6(2): 156-164. /10.12677/sa.2017.62018 顾召云 等 具有集聚效应且本省经济的发展会带动周围省份的经济。出口的增长会促进经济增长，但进口会阻碍经 济的发展，而且出口对经济的正向促进作用大于进口对经济的阻碍作用。 关键词 对外贸易，经济增长，空间面板，溢出效应，间接效应 Copyright © 2017 by authors and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/