鄂西山区中小流域水文模拟和参数敏感性分析.PDF

气象科技 进展 鄂西山区中小流域水文模拟及参数敏感性分析 1 2 １ 3 彭涛 唐志朋 殷志远 丁煌 （1 中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室，武汉 430205； 2 长江科学院，武汉 430015；3 中国电力科学研究院新能源研究中心，南京 210009） 摘要：针对古洞口水库流域的暴雨洪水过程，利用新安江水文模型开展了水文模拟试验，结合确定性系数、洪峰流量相 对误差、峰现时差等指标对模拟结果进行评定，并以该流域为例进行参数敏感性分析，分别基于确定性系数、洪峰流量 相对误差、峰现时差为评价指标，对模型参数敏感性进行定量分析，确定了关键敏感性参数，为优化模型结构及评估模 型应用可靠性提供参考依据。 关键词：新安江水文模型，水文模拟，参数率定，敏感性分析 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2018.04.007 Hydrological Simulation and Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of Small and Medium Basins in the Western Mountains of Hubei Province 1 2 1 3 Peng Tao , Tang Zhipeng , Yin Zhiyuan , Ding Huang (1 Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan 430205 2 Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan 430015 3 Renewable Energy Center, China Electric Power Research Institute, Nanjing 210009) Abstract: Based on the rainstorm and flood process information for the Gudongkou Reservoir Basin, the Xin’anjiang Hydrological model is used to carry out hydrological simulation tests. The simulation results are evaluated with the determinacy coefficient, the relative error of the flood peak flow and the peak time difference. The parameter sensitivity is analyszed respectively with the deterministic coefficient, the relative error and peak time difference of peak flow as the evaluation indexes, and the sensitivity of the model parameters is carried out quantitatively, then the key sensitivity parameters are determined. It provides a reference for the optimization of model structure and the reliability of the model application.