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July 26, 2013
China
The China credit conundrum:
Risks, paths and implications
Portfolio Strategy Research
Key concerns around China’s rapid credit buildup Kenneth Ho
+852-2978-7468 kenneth.ho@
Chinese policymakers’ historical emphasis on high growth, alongside Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
efforts to diversify the financial system, has led to a large credit buildup –
China’s total debt is now c. 210% of GDP, well above emerging-market Helen Zhu
+852-2978-0048 helen.zhu@
peers. While a high absolute level of debt does not by itself presage a Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
crisis, reasons for concern include: 1) the very rapid credit growth in recent
years; 2) the diminishing links between credit and GDP growth; and 3) the Andrew Tilton
+852-2978-1802 andrew.tilton@
brisk expansion of the “shadow banking” sector. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
How it stands: Pressure points from unsustainable leverage growth Timothy Moe, CFA
+852-2978-1328 timothy.moe@
We analyzed available public sources of data on Chinese credit from a top- Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
down and bottom-up basis. Our credit quality triangulation suggests that
the h
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