我国汽车行业的发展状况分析及其预测.doc

PAGE PAGE \* MERGEFORMATI 荆楚理工学院 选修课论文 我国汽车行业的发展状况分析及其预测 The Development Situation of China’s Automobile Industry Analysis and Prediction 姓 名： 陈昌军 学 号： 2012301020125 学 院： 电子信息工程学院 专 业： 12级电气自动化 2014 年 6月1日 摘 要 随着我国国民经济的增长，汽车工业已逐渐发展壮大为国民经济的支柱产业之一，对整个经济增长的拉动作用日益明显。纵观世界各国经济发展历程，都可以看到当地汽车工业发展对本国经济发展所产生的重要影响，但不同的发展模式对本国经济发展拉动作用和产业可持续发展的支撑作用是完全不同的。 本文描述了我国汽车行业的发展概况及发展趋势，对我国发展汽车行业的优势和劣势，机会和威胁进行分析。在对汽车未来的发展趋势进行分析时，给出了一系列我国汽车销售量的影响因素，采用计量分析法建立预测模型。针对汽车行业目前的状况，文章最后对政府和汽车生产企业提出了相应的发展对策和建议。 关键词：汽车行业；SWOT分析法；销售量预测；计量分析法 Abstract With the growth of economy of China, the automobile industry has gradually grown to one of the pillar industries of the national economy, and its promoting effect on the whole economy is on the increase. Through observing the economic development process of all countries in the world, we found that the development of local automobile Industry impacted their native economic development, but it was absolute different that the different development model plays the role of pulling native economy and supporting sustainable industry development. This paper describes the development of Chinas automobile industry and its development trend; on Chinas development of the automotive industrys strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats analysis. In the future development trend of automobile analysis, given a series of influencing factors of Chinas auto sales.I the use of quantitative analysis method to build the prediction model.According to the current situation of the car market, this paper finally puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for the government and car enterprises. Key words: car market; the SWOT analysis method;sales forecast; measurement analysis PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT14 目 录 TOC \o 1-2 \h \z \u HYPERLINK \l _Toc249794543 摘 要 PAGEREF _Toc249794543 \h I HYPERLINK \l _Toc249794544 引 言 PAGEREF _Toc249794544 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc249794545 一、我国汽车行业发展历程及现状