麦格理投行 2017中国汽车行业深度研究报告.pdf

CHINA Chinese autos Emerging local brands In this report, we analyse the outlook for Chinese local car brands and the varied strategy of major firms. We also initiate coverage on Great Wall (Outperform), Geely (Outperform), BYD (Underperform) and Guangzhou Auto (Neutral). Riding on structural growth We believe local brands provide an attractive proxy for China’s growing car market. During 2006-10, they have achieved a 33% sales volume CAGR and increased their share of the passenger vehicle market by 6ppt to 46%. Inside We expect local brands to achieve the 50% market share by 2015, driven by Investment summary 2 the structural growth of smaller-sized cars and by the low-end segment, Riding on structural growth 5 where local brands traditionally have a stronghold. SWOT analysis 9 One blanket investment strategy won’t work One blanket investment strategy won’t There are 31 local brands out of 52 OEMs in the fragmented Chinese car work 14 market. Their operation scales vary substantially, with annual sales ranging from less than 5,000 units to over 0.5m units. Different origins, different strategies 15 Who would separate winners from the They adopt diffe