城市隧道工期风险预警系统研究管理科学与工程专业论文.docxVIP

摘 摘 要 近几年来，隧道工程因占地面积和对环境的影响都相对较小等诸多优点，在 我国大中小城市中都得已广泛应用，特别是在山区城市道路和城市轨道交通建设 中发挥着举足轻重的作用。但由于城市隧道工程外来干扰的因素大，受到的制约 多，面对的环境相对复杂，使得工程往往难以按时完工。隧道工程工期一旦失控， 不仅浪费人力、物力，直接增加了费用，还将给工程质量和安全带来巨大的影响。 因此，城市隧道工期风险管理越来越受到项目管理者的重视。 文中，首先对城市隧道工期和风险的定义进行了简单的介绍，通过风险辨识 的基本原理和方法，罗列出了对工期影响较大的风险因素。结合影响因素，建立 起城市隧道工期风险评价的指标体系和层次结构，并运用层次分析法进行了风险 评价。接着，借助于预警的基本思想和模型方法，构建起以风险状态、风险识别、 风险评价、风险预测、风险警报和风险预控对策为子系统的城市工期风险预警系 统。其中，风险预测系统中分别采用非肯定网络评审计划(PERT)和最大熵模型 (Maximum Entropy)计算出关键路径和各个施工工序按期完工的风险大小。以此 为基础，设立工期风险的警报指标和警度阀值。最后，根据风险响应的一般范式， 给出工期风险规避的几种方案和具体预控措施。 本文以建立城市隧道工期风险预警系统为重点，运用定性和定量相结合的分 析方法，为我国城市隧道工期风险控制提供了理论和技术支持。 关键词： 城市隧道；风险预警系统；PEI玎；最大熵模型 In In recent years，due to the advantages of smaller occupied area and less environment influences，the tunnel project has been widely applied to many cities and towns，and played a very important role in the construction of mountain city roads and urban rail transit．However,city tunnel projects are disturbed by external effect more easily,and in the face of more constraints and more complex environment,the completions of city tunnel projccts are often delayed．When the construction period of a tunnel project is out of control，not only more costs are produced because of the WaSte of manpower and materials，but also the q叫ity and safety of the p啊ect will be effected． Therefore，project managers pay more and more attentions t0 time risk management of city tunnel project． In this paper,the author briefly introduces the definition of city tunnel project and risk,enumerates the risk factors that make more effects to construction periods．With the factors，an index system and the hierarchy of risk evaluation of the city tunnel construction period are established,risks are evaluated with the method of AHP．Then, a risk warning system of city tunnel construction period is built,which is composed by four sub-systems called risk status，risk identification,riSk assessment and risk prediction．In the sub-systems of risk prediction,PERT and Maximum Entxopy model are used