2007會計資訊系統計學(一)上課投影片.pptVIP

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2007會計資訊系統計學(一)上課投影片.ppt

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Solution Union Mutual fund outperforms the market (B1) Mutual fund doesn’t outperform the market (B2) Top 20 MBA program (A1) .11 .29 Not top 20 MBA program (A2) .06 .54 A1 or B1 occurs whenever either: A1 and B1 occurs, A1 and B2 occurs, A2 and B1 occurs. P(A1 ? B1) = P(A1 ? B1) + P(A1 ? B2) + P(A2 ? B1) = .11 +.29 + .06 = .46 Comment: P(A1 ? B1) = 1 – P(A2 ? B2) = 1 – .54 = .46 6-* 2007會計資訊系統計學(一)上課投影片 6.3 Probability Rules and Trees We present more methods to determine the probability of the intersection and the union of two events. Three rules assist us in determining the probability of complex events from the probability of simple events. Complement Rule（互補原則） Multiplication Rule（乘法原則） Addition Rule（加法原則） 6-* 2007會計資訊系統計學(一)上課投影片 Complement Rule （互補原則） The complement of event A （互補事件、餘事件） (denoted by AC) is the event that occurs when event A does not occur. The probability of the complement event is calculated by P(AC) = 1 - P(A) A and AC consist of all the simple events in the sample space. Therefore,P(A) + P(AC) = 1 6-* 2007會計資訊系統計學(一)上課投影片 Additional Example – revisited The number of spots turning up when a six-side die is tossed is observed. Consider the following event. A: The number observed is at most 2. Determine the probability of AC. Complement Rule A 1 2 4 5 6 3 AC 6-* 2007會計資訊系統計學(一)上課投影片 Multiplication Rule （乘法原則） The multiplication rule is used to calculate the joint probability of two events. It is based on the formula for conditional probability defined earlier: If we multiply both sides of the equation by P(B) we have: P(A ? B) = P(A | B)?P(B) Likewise, P(A ? B) = P(B | A) ? P(A) If A and B are independent events, then P(A ? B) = P(A)?P(B) 6-* 2007會計資訊系統計學(一)上課投影片 Example 6.5 A graduate statistics course has seven male and three female students. The professor wants to select two students at random to help her conduct a research project. What is the probability that the two students chosen are femal