基于不确定性分析的城总体规划环评方法与案例-中国科技论文在线.PDFVIP

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基于不确定性分析的城总体规划环评方法与案例-中国科技论文在线.PDF

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中国科技论文在线 2007,27(4) 566~571 China Environmental Science * ,,,, (, 100084) ,,, HSY , . ,., ,. HSY X32 A 1000 6923(2007)04 0566 06 Integrating uncertainty analysis into strategic environmental assessment of urban master plan: a methodology and * case study. LIU Yi , CHEN Ji-ning, HE Wei-qi, ZENG Si-yu, WU Hong-bin (Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China). China Environmental Science, 2007,27(4)566~571 Abstract An integrated methodology aiming to appropriately depict and evaluate the underlying uncertainties of the designed schemes of economic growth and land use in an urban master plan (UMP) and the environmental impacts it caused was established. Combing a Monte Carlo sampling technique and HSY algorithm, the methodology introduced an uncertainty analysis approach into strategic environmental assessment (SEA). A GIS-based model was subsequently constructed, which enabled that all tentative stochastic samples regarding various possibilities of industrial development and land use pattern and the induced environmental impacts can be examined in a systematical way. The methodology was applied to a case study on assessing inshore environmental impacts by the UMP of Dalian Municipality, Northeast China. The pollution emission and the identified environmental sensitive industries significantly varied spatially. The probability that the discharged amount of pollutants exceeds environmental goal may become large in some certain areas. Key words strateg