气象舒适条件对呼吸系统疾病的影响.PDF

中国环境科学 2018,38(1) ：374~382 China Environmental Science 气象舒适条件对呼吸系统疾病的影响 1,2* 1,2 2 3 3 马 盼 ,王式功 , 尚可政 ,黎檀实 ,尹 岭 (1.成都信息工程大学大气科学学院, 四川 成都 610225 ；2. 兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃 兰州 730000 ；3. 中国人民解放军总医院,北京 100853) 摘要：采用广义相加模型和分布滞后非线性模型,研究单个气象要素和以“通用的热气候指 ”表征的多要素综合效应与北京市 2009~2012 年呼吸系统疾病急诊人数的暴露-响应关系,并按年龄、性别分层.结果表明,对全人群而言,高温效应即时,低温作用滞后;湿度30%能显著增 加发病风险,且效应持久;3m/s 风速对应发病风险最低.少儿(≤14 岁)受热胁迫影响最强,尤其突出高温高湿作用;成人(15~59 岁)受冷胁迫影 响强且滞后性;老年患者(60 岁)对冷胁迫敏感,着重防范低温低湿.采用舒适指数探讨环境对呼吸系统疾病的影响优于单要素表征,可加深 对发病气象成因的理解,为科学预防、预测预警提供新思路. 关键词：呼吸系统疾病；气象条件；舒适度；多要素综合效应；滞后性 中图分类号：X503.1,P49 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2018)01-0374-09 The impact of meteorological comfort conditions on respiratory disease. MA Pan1,2*, WANG Shi-gong1,2, SHANG Ke-zheng2 3 3 , LI Tan-shi , YIN Ling (1.College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China ；2.College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China ；3.Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing 100853, China). China Environmental Science, 2018,38(1)：374~382 Abstract ：The distributed lag nonlinear model and generalized additive model were applied to study the exposure- response relationship between meteorological conditions and the number of emergency room (ER) visits for respiratory diseases, from 2009 to 2012 in Beijing, China. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was used as an indicator of climate thermal condition. Immediate influence of high temperatures and lag effect of low temperatures on the incidence were revealed. Relative humidity (RH) 30% significantly increased the risk of onset, and its lag effect reached more than 10days. The RR of wind speed 3m/s was the smallest. When considering the comprehensive effect of multiple