Z-score模型对我国上市司财务预警的适用性研究.doc

哈尔滨工业大学工学硕士学位论文 毕业设计（论文） PAGE 10 - - PAGE I - - 摘要 企业破产是市场经济中的普遍现象。近年来，我国上市公司因财务危机导致经营陷入困境的例子屡见不鲜。事实上，上市公司的财务风险发生总是有一个过程的，由潜伏期到爆发期需要很长时间。及时准确地发现上市公司存在的财务风险, 对其各利益相关者主体来说都具有极其重要的意义。建立预警系统对企业财务运营进行预测预报, 是十分必要而重要的。本文回顾了有关财务风险预警的相关理论，在介绍Altman 的Z 计分模型的基础上，随机抽取了深市和沪市共60只A股股票对Z-score模型的适用性进行了实证研究：选取了30家ST公司和30家非ST公司2008年、2009年及2010年三年的相关财务数据，计算各个指标，最终得出Z值，根据Z值的大小确定Z-score模型并不能直接用于我国上市公司预警。但是，通过比较ST公司与非ST公司Z值，对Z值的波动性和各财务比率做分析，适当降低临界点的大小，可以有效的提高准确程度。 关键词　Z-score模型，财务预警，适用性，实证研究； Abstract The enterprise bankruptcy is a common phenomenon in the market economy. In recent years, the listed companies in China got into trouble because of the financial crisis common occurrence. In fact, the listed companys financial risk occurs always having a process, and the incubation period of the outbreak will take a long time. Timely and accurately finding the listed companies’ financial risk has very important significance for all the stakeholders’ subjects. It is very necessary and important to establish the early warning system to predict enterprise financial operation. Based on the introduction of Altman’s Z-score model, this paper reviews the financial risk pre-warning related theory, and randomly selects 60 only A shares from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets to do the empirical research about the applicability of Z-score model: we select the relevant financial dates of 30 ST companies and 30 normal companies in 2008, 2009 and 2010 three years, then calculate each index, eventually get Z value, and get the conclusion that we can’t directly used Z -score model in the early warning of the listed companies in China according to the value Z. However, by comparing the ST companies’ value Z with the normal’, analyzing the volatility of the value Z and the financial ratios, reducing the size of the critical point properly, we can effectively improve the accuracy. Keywords　Z-score model, Financial warning, applicability, empirical research； 目录 目录 TOC \o 1-3 \h \z \u HYPERLINK \l