北太平洋海温因子与棉铃虫遥相关机制的探讨.DOCVIP

北太平洋海温因子与棉铃虫种群数量遥相关机制的探讨收稿日期： 收稿日期： 基金来源:青岛农业大学高层次人才科研基金项目（项目编号：6630506）。 作者简介: 秦淑莲，1962年10月生，女，山东招远人，博士，教授。主要从事病虫测报、数据分析处理及应用软件开发研制等方向的研究，E-mail:qinshulian@163.com 秦淑莲1 , 姜玉英2 , 翟保平3 , 张孝羲3 （1. 青岛农业大学理学与信息学院，青岛 266019；2.全国农业技术推广服务中心测报处，北京 100125；南京农业大学昆虫学系, 农业部病虫监测与治理重点实验室, 南京 210095） 摘 要：为了分析探讨海温因子与棉铃虫遥相关的机制，分别计算并分析了1-3月份的海温因子与德州、郓城和丰县从当年1月份开始到后两年12月份为止的时段内的月平均气温和月总降水之间的相关关系，结果表明海温因子与各地后两年2月的气温呈显著或极显著的正相关，与后一年10月的气温呈负相关，而各地的棉铃虫与当年2月份的气温呈显著或极显著的正相关，与前一年10月的气温呈显著的负相关。可见前期海温因子通过影响棉铃虫生存的关键时段的气候进而影响棉铃虫的种群数量。 关键词：棉铃虫；海温；相关分析；长期灾变预测 Possible Mechanism for Tele-correlation between SST in North Pacific and the Population Size of Cotton Bollworm QIN Shu-Lian1 , JIANG Yu-Ying2, Zhai Bao-Ping3 , ZHANG Xiao-Xi3 (1. College of Science and Information Engineering, Qingdao Agricultural University, Qingdao 266019, China; 2.Pest Forecasting Division, National Agro-Technique Extension and Service Center, Beijing 100026, China; 3. Key Laboratory of Pest Monitoring and Management of Chinese Agricultural Ministry, Department of Entomology, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China) The possible mechanism for the influence of the SST(sea surface temperature) in North Pacific on outbreak of H. armigera in China is discussed, trough calculated and analyzed the relationship between 1-3 SST factor and he monthly average temperature and the monthly total precipitation from January to December period of two years after in Dezhou and Yuncheng, Shangdong Province, Fengxian, Jiangsu Province. The result shows a significant positive correlation between the SST and the air temperature in February of two years later and a negative correlation with the air temperature in October of the next year. The similar but more strong correlation can be seen between the population fluctuation of the CBW(Cotton Bollworm )and the air temperature in February of current year and in October of last year. Change of the SST causes the change of continental climate in northern China, and then t