2016美赛E题参考 答案.docxVIP

Team # 52766 For office use only T1 ________________ T2 ________________ T3 ________________ T4 ________________ Team Control Number52766 ? Problem ChosenE For office use only F1 ________________ F2 ________________ F3 ________________ F4 ________________ 2016MCM/ICMSummary Sheet In order to predict the water scarcity and optimize the configuration reasonably, we analyze the situation of water scarcity by establishing a mathematical model, and propose the feasible suggestions on optimization. All the work is based on the sufficient data we collect. Firstly, the local situation of water scarcity is estimated by introducing the water lacking rate index. Secondly, the local water consumption is predicted from personal living, industry, agriculture and ecology. Meanwhile, the local water consumption is predicted through establishing a compound model which based on an improved Logistic Model and the statistical regression analysis. Thirdly, the Gray Prediction Metabolism Model is used for predicting the amount of local water supply. At last, we comprehensively analyze the experimental results, and predict the ability of water supply in this local area. To verify the availability of the model, we choose the North China as the object of study. We conclude that this area is seriously scarce before 2010 on the basis of mass data. The water scarcity will steadily remit and reach balance in 2025. This is due to China has finished the South-to-North Water Diversion and the North China gains large water resources from outside. The results call inside with the truth, so the model is reliable. Then we try to optimize the water supplying and demanding structure in the North China, so that it can realize the internal self-sufficiency. We use analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to assess the four schemes of water storage, water transfer, wastewater treatment and desalination from four aspects of timeliness, sustainability, economic